Ed Stetzer
As dean of Talbot School of Theology, I look forward every year to the annual report from the Association of Theological Schools (ATS). This report shares a range of data about seminaries and theological schools in North America.
Today, the newest data was officially published, and it shows some encouraging things about theological education in general and Talbot School of Theology in particular. Other things are less encouraging. There are a few prominent trends. These matter not just for academics, but for all church leaders (and Christians), because they will have an impact on ministries and churches for years to come.
Let’s look at three trends taking place specifically among US schools.1
Table of contents
1. The great consolidation
2. The part-time pivot
3. The regional shift
The future of theological education
1. The great consolidation
Let’s start by observing the ten largest institutions by headcount and Full Time Equivalency (FTE).2
The landscape is dominated by a handful of schools, and some of them are getting bigger year after year. It’s hard to overstate just how much seminary training is done by only ten schools. Actually, it’s hard to overstate how much is done by just three schools.
So, first, one of the most defining trends we see in this data is a continual shift involving the consolidation of theological education. Larger schools tend to be thriving and consolidating (or sometimes growing) while smaller, nimbler schools are carving out specific niches in the market. In between, it’s often a different story, as mid-sized schools struggle.
The thriving, consolidating schools include Talbot, several SBC schools, Liberty, and Dallas, along with a relative newcomer in Kairos. (It’s important to note that Kairos is a very different, competency-based model of theological education compared to the others.) At Talbot, we’re grateful for our growth and working to steward it well, as well as cheering on our sister schools around the nation.
It’s also hard to ignore the fact that the fastest-growing and largest schools hold historic and conservative theological convictions. Look at all of these schools and you will see a clear correlation between growth and a high view of the authority of Scripture, as well as other historic patterns of faith and practice. For example, Talbot is a conservative evangelical seminary, embedded in one of the most comprehensively Christian universities in the nation, Biola. These numbers reflect the desire of students for clarity, not just at Talbot but across the theological education landscape. Everyone in the top ten uses the word evangelical to describe themselves, and most (like Talbot) use the words “conservative evangelical.”
On the flip side, when you look at schools with more “broad” or progressive leanings, you mostly see a steady, undeniable reverse trend. Mainline Protestants know that their seminaries—along with their denominations—are in ongoing decline. This decline isn’t necessarily a surprise. Mainline Protestant seminaries have been in a downward spiral for a long time. Yet seeing it reflected so clearly across the entire sector is a bracing reminder of the future of theological education.
So, large seminaries are getting larger, small seminaries are nimbler and better connected to local churches, and middle-sized seminaries are working to find sustainable business models. All three can thrive, I believe, but it will require a close partnership with churches and a commitment to a clearly articulated mission.
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2. The part-time pivot
Second, we are seeing a consistent pace of growth between part-time enrollments and full-time enrollments, seen in total headcount and full-time equivalency (FTE). Both headcount and FTE have grown by about 13 percent over the past decade, even as some schools have dramatically increased their part-time headcount compared to FTE. Some schools are leaning into a “part-time pivot” and seeing the numbers to match.
You can see this as it varies by school. Some have larger headcounts and lower FTE, which means they have more part time students.
I rejoice to see the total number of enrollments increase, with both headcount and FTE growing. More and more students are pursuing theological education, and that’s a good thing! Schools that have successfully navigated the “part-time pivot” have thrived.
But I also want to maintain a focus on “quality” and not just “quantity.” We love all of our students at Talbot, and I’m also glad that our FTE is growing faster than our headcount by a significant margin (8.6 percent to 5.3 percent year over year). This points toward students who aren’t just signing up but diving deep, with heavier course loads.
3. The regional shift
Third, there is a regional shift that we can’t ignore. For a long time, the Northeast, the Midwest, and even California were centers of gravity for theological education, with legacy institutions like Gordon–Conwell, Fuller, and Trinity (TEDS) leading the way for evangelicals.
But things have changed, as Gordon–Conwell and Fuller have declined over the past decade, while the Southern Baptists (and Dallas and Asbury) have grown in their centers of influence. The data shows a decadal decline in FTE of 28 percent for Gordon–Conwell and 57 percent for Fuller, even as these numbers have stabilized somewhat in recent years. We also saw a watershed moment when TEDS sold its campus in Illinois, integrating into Trinity Western University in Canada. These are significant changes in the landscape of evangelical theological education.
The largest and fastest-growing schools have consolidated into the Southern “Bible Belt” states, with only a few exceptions. Kairos, as I said, is quite a different model, based not on a geographic location but an online and mentorship-based approach, and Midwestern is in Missouri, drawing from and somewhat adjacent to the South. Southern California has four larger schools—Talbot, Gateway, Fuller, and Master’s—making it the regional exception to the Southern dominance of theological education.
I am pleased to report that Talbot is thriving in Southern California. We have become the largest seminary in the West judging by FTE—a true bulwark for theological education, supported by nearly sixty full-time faculty and hundreds of adjuncts across our graduate and undergraduate programs.
The future of theological education
I’ve often said that I’m not a prophet, or the son of a prophet, and I work for a nonprofit organization. So I’m not claiming to know the future. But I also see trends that would be foolish to ignore.
As we look at pivots in theological education, we see a clear consolidation around thriving schools with orthodox clarity, a movement toward part-time education, and regionalization. We need to pay attention to these things. The future of the church will be significantly influenced by the quality of its leaders. And these leaders will largely be shaped in, through, and by the theological institutions we are called to steward.
For us at Talbot, we believe that we can maintain a world-class faculty of scholars while remaining deeply connected to the church. We’ve learned from schools like Asbury and Dallas as they have done so, launching Talbot Embedded all around the country.
Other schools will take different approaches, but all schools will have to navigate change as they seek to raise up a new generation of pastors, leaders, and missionaries.
Resources for further study
Beyond Profession: The Next Future of Theological Education (Theological Education between the Times)
Regular price: $20.99
The Hope of the Gospel: Theological Education and the Next Evangelicalism (Theological Education between the Times)
Regular price: $19.99
Looking Forward with Hope: Reflections on the Present State and Future of Theological Education
Regular price: $12.10
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- Note: Although the ATS report includes schools across North America, the data and analysis mentioned in this article pertain to US schools only. For instance, Tyndale University (Toronto, CAN) would actually replace Grand Canyon in the below lists (“Top 10 Non-Denominational Seminaries”) if it were to be included.
- The Association of Theological Schools (ATS) calculates FTE using their formula based on credit hours taken by students, not on how schools classify full-time status internally. ATS uses 12 hours for master’s programs because it reflects the average full-time load across member schools, and 6 hours for doctoral students since doctoral coursework is typically lighter. I prefer FTE as it measures students taking classes.
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